BJP confident of first-ever victory in Valley; pleased with J&K results. - watsupptoday.com
BJP confident of first-ever victory in Valley; pleased with J&K results.
Posted 05 Oct 2024 04:30 PM

Image Source: Agencies

The Central BJP leadership is optimistic about the results of the October 8 Jammu and Kashmir poll, citing "good outcomes" from internal party surveys.

With predictions suggesting it may win the Gurez assembly seat in the Baramulla Lok Sabha constituency, the saffron party is also seeking to break its electoral drought in the Kashmir Valley.

In the Kashmir Valley, the BJP has never taken home any seats.

Speaking to The Tribune today, BJP leaders who directed the J&K election strategy claimed they were, together with friendly parties, seeking to cross the majority mark of 48 in a 95 member UT legislature. There are five MLAs nominated out of the total of 95 seats, 47 of which are in Kashmir and 43 in Jammu.

A top BJP official told The Tribune, "In our opinion, which may appear audacious to many, we can win 33 seats on our own - 32 in Jammu and one in the Valley."

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The goal of party strategists is for the People's Conference and Apni Party, two of the BJP's ally parties, to secure at least four and three seats, respectively, and eight seats for the BJP-backed independents.

This adds up to 48. Five more MLAs have been nominated, bringing the total number of MLAs in the 95-member house—of which 48 constitute the simple majority—to 53.

But BJP leaders have cautions: "October 8 outcomes may vary from internal party assessment results" because this election is being held for the first time in ten years, for the first time since Article 370 was abrogated in 2019, and because of numerous new factors at play, such as candidates backed by Jamaat-e-Islami and Engineer Rashid, seven small parties, and a record number of independents.

According to BJP surveys, the alliance of the National Conference, Congress, and CPM is predicted to secure 33, 6 and 1 seats, respectively, increasing their total to 40.

With a confident demeanor, a leading BJP office bearer declared, "According to our surveys, PDP and Engineer Rashid's Party and allies are going to bag roughly 7 seats in Jackson and Kashmir."

This correspondent was informed by Tarun Chugh, the BJP general secretary responsible for J&K, that the 2024 election would be about "India's story vs Pakistan's narrative and India's narrative will win."

In the past, the BJP has only run for a relatively small number of Kashmir Valley seats.

In the 47 Valley seats, the party fielded 19 candidates this time around, the fewest in 28 years. The BJP nominated thirteen candidates in Kashmir in 1996.

The party ran for three seats in 1983 (shortly after the formation of the BJP in 1980) and two in 1987. The BJP nominated 28 candidates in 2002, 26 in 2008, and 34 in 2014.

After winning 25 seats in the Jammu division in the 2014 elections, the BJP partnered with the PDP, which secured 28 seats in Kashmir, to create an alliance government.

The coalition disintegrated quickly.

"We have already fought and won three battles in J&K since early 2024 — the struggle against terrorists who threatened to disrupt the voting process," Chugh stated when discussing the significance of the J&K polls this time. The first victory is peaceful, incident-free polling. The resurgence of people's faith in the political process is the second victory; even Jamaat-e-Islami has fielded candidates. The 1987 incidents had destroyed this trust. The third is Kashmiris' conviction that anyone may challenge and prevail, not just dynasts."

According to Tarun Chugh, the pivotal moment in UT's electoral history occurred with the successful holding of the District Development Council elections in J&K following the revocation of Article 370.

"The combined Gupkar alliance had characterized that election as a referendum on repealing Article 370. Five lakh of the approximately ten lakh votes cast were against the Gupkar alliance and in favor of stability, according to Chugh, who guided UT's election strategy with Union Home Minister Amit Shah and RSS's Ram Madhav, the BJP's poll chief for J&K.

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