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Aug 7, 2025: An opinion piece in Geopolitical Monitor stated that the Yarlung Zangbo dam project, which China calls a part of its renewable energy transition, has revealed concerning and calculated geopolitical motivations due to the project's location, scale, and timing. The project, which will eclipse the Three Gorges Dam and produce roughly 70 gigawatts of power, emerges at a moment of heightened regional tensions.
China's decision to proceed with construction reflects a keen understanding of the evolving dynamics of water diplomacy in South Asia and its readiness to weaponise rivers, says the Geopolitical Monitor.
The downstream implications of China's dam construction extend across multiple countries and affect hundreds of millions of people. According to Geopolitical Monitor, upon entering India, the Yarlung Zangbo transforms into the Brahmaputra, supporting approximately 130 million people and six million hectares of agricultural land in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, and additional northeastern provinces. India's response, the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project, demonstrates its recognition of the necessity of defensive measures, despite their limitations. The democratic constraints that are less prominent in authoritarian nations like China are brought to light by the fact that India's own project faces opposition from locals and environmentalists, among other groups. Additionally, China's advantages upstream cannot be completely countered by the 11,000-megawatt dam that is planned for Arunachal Pradesh. According to Geopolitical Monitor, the fundamental asymmetry between China's upstream hegemony and India's defensive posture suggests that Beijing will maintain its strategic advantages regardless of any Indian countermeasures. Earlier in July, in response to concerns expressed by India over the Yarlung Zangbo hydropower project, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said that the project's construction falls within China's sovereign territory. He said, that China has cooperated with relevant downstream countries on hydrological monitoring, as well as flood prevention and mitigation, and has carried out necessary communications concerning the hydropower project.
According to Geopolitical Monitor, Beijing has built or authorized almost 193 hydroelectric installations in Tibet since 2000, with approximately 80% classified as major or massive-scale projects. More than 60% of these developments are still in the planning or preliminary stages, but if they were built, they would eliminate numerous sacred locations and dispense with more than 1.2 million residents.