Sept 2, 2025: When compared to the northeastern regions of the nation, the states of Rajasthan and Gujarat have experienced significantly more precipitation during the ongoing monsoon season. While India’s overall average rainfall has declined in recent years, the frequency of extreme rainfall events has increased.
New research published in Springer Nature reveals that these regions are experiencing unusual extreme rainfall events, marked by exceptionally high rainfall over short periods.

Monsoon depressions and low-pressure systems have been linked to rising rainfall in India, particularly in the arid states of Rajasthan, Gujarat, and the Godavari basin. In a paper, researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology-Bhubaneshwar examined long-term gaps in the trends of extreme rains across northwest India’s semi-arid and arid regions. They used high-resolution datasets to analyse both the trends and the dominant meteorological drivers of these events.

The researchers studied the frequency of extreme rainfall in the region between 1991 and 2022, using data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). They categorised the regions based on rainfall intensity.

If more than 10 regions are affected at once, the event is classified as a “widespread event.” A "localized event" is one that affects two to nine regions. A mix of both is referred to as a “generalised event.”
In the arid and semi-arid regions, they found 210 widespread events and 468 localised events.

The research indicates that extreme rainfall events are increasing across much of Gujarat and its surrounding areas. There is a rise in both widespread and localized events, but widespread events are becoming more intense more quickly. These events are influenced by low-pressure systems forming in western India, which draw moisture from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. They are also triggered by disturbances in the middle levels of the atmosphere, roughly three to six kilometres above ground.

Further, these events are driven by rising air, strong storm-like circulation, and heating of the mid-atmosphere due to condensation. Frozen particles within clouds also play a crucial role in producing heavy rainfall.
The researchers note, “Hydrometeor distributions reveal the substantial role of snow in atmospheric cooling and stability during EREs. Snow’s impact on latent heat release and vertical temperature profiles underscores its significance in modulating rainfall intensity.” Hydrometeor distributions are all the parts of water or ice that are distributed in the atmosphere.

By contrast, cloud ice plays a minor role, while moisture static energy (MSE) influences rainfall but is less directly linked to the above factors.
The study points to a clear upward trend in both widespread and localized events, pointing to the reasons for the recent rise in rainfall in western India. Finally, the researchers stress the importance of targeted climate adaptation strategies to manage the growing frequency and intensity of EREs, warning that without them, infrastructure, agriculture, and communities in these regions could face severe consequences.